A severe weather outbreak expected in middle Tennessee this evening.

Surface low pressure will strengthen in the Southern Plains this afternoon and head east. The system will move into middle Tennessee this evening with a round of severe weather. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are expected... with isolated tornadoes possible.

A warm front and low level jet will get thunderstorms started west of Interstate 65 by early evening... then spread into the plateau around mid evening.

High wind shear and instability will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms... with damaging winds... flash flooding and isolated tornadoes. A higher chance of severe weather exists west of Interstate 65.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight across northwest middle Tennessee. The area has seen around two inches of rainfall this morning... with an additional 1 to 2 inches expected tonight. The heavy rain will likely lead to flash flooding.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for updates concerning this potential severe weather outbreak.